The United States and China boost the global wine market
Global wine consumption is expected to reach a record $224.5 billion in 2021, according to the Vinexpo / IWSR annual forecast.
In 10 years, between 2011 and 2021, the value of the wine market will increase by 40%, for a marketed volume of 2.66 billion 9-liter cases. The United States and China, the two most powerful economies in the world, are driving the recovery. The growth in their consumption offsets declines in other countries, particularly in Europe.
Over the next five years, China will become the second largest wine market in terms of value behind the world leader, the United States. Chinese consumption is expected to increase by more than a third to $23 billion over the next five years and reach a volume of 192 million cases. In comparison, the value of the Chinese wine market reached $15.24 billion with a jump of 8 million cases in 2016, a growth driven exclusively by still wine.
The U.S., the world’s largest wine market with a value of more than $36 billion in 2017, is expected to grow by more than 25% by 2021 and exceed $45 billion.
Confirmation of the worldwide interest in sparkling wines
Sparkling wine is expected to grow at an average of 2% per year through 2021, primarily in North America, but with strong growth also in the UK and Asia-Pacific countries such as Australia and Japan. These two countries helped drive the total value of sparkling wine consumed in Asia Pacific to $2.79 billion in 2016 for 9 million cases. By 2012, these numbers are expected to reach $3.73 billion (15.8 million cases).
By 2021, when global consumption of Prosecco reaches 40 million cases, it will overtake other major categories such as Champagne and Cava. In the United Kingdom, the world’s largest importer of sparkling wine, Prosecco is enjoying remarkable success. Nevertheless, the United States is expected to be the fastest growing market for Prosecco over the next five years, although it will not overtake the United Kingdom.
Europe accounted for 80% of Champagne volumes consumed in 2016. By 2021, this consumption is expected to fall by 4 points to the benefit of emerging countries.
Growing importance of premium brands
In line with the « drink less but better » trend, premium wines are expected to boost global still wine consumption. The premium segment (wines sold between $10 and $20) is expected to grow by more than 60 million cases during this period. Standard brands ($5-$9.99) will grow by just under 32 million cases, and super-premium by just under
5 million cases. The biggest losses will be in wines under $5 where the overall category is expected to lose 75 million cases.
Strong performance by premium spirits
Whisky is doing particularly well, especially Scotch and American whiskies and, to a lesser extent, gin and tequila. This development reflects the overall trend towards premiumization, with the premium and higher segments growing most rapidly. The United States and China will drive global growth in premium and superior spirits. Together, they are expected to account for an additional 30 million cases in these price segments, compared to a total net gain of 46 million cases worldwide.
At the same time, the power of the Asia-Pacific region and Hong Kong’s role as a major business center is highlighted by the regional growth forecast over the next five years, which is expected to rise from $29 billion in 2016 to $40.8 billion in 2021.
Guillaume Deglise, CEO of Vinexpo, said:
« Since Vinexpo began tracking global data several years ago, we have witnessed the remarkable growth of the Asia-Pacific region and its massive contribution to the growth of the wine and spirits sectors. Being present in Hong Kong since 1998 is a winning strategic choice that Vinexpo makes available to its clients.
The 20th anniversary of Vinexpo Hong Kong, which will take place from May 29-31, 2018, will feature 1,300 exhibitors from 28 countries showcasing their products to 18,000 trade buyers.
More information on the Vinexpo Hong Kong website